Influence of Population Density for COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia: An Ecological Study.

The rapid transmission of highly contagious infectious diseases within communities can yield potential hotspots or clusters across geographies. For COVID-19, the impact of population density on transmission models demonstrates mixed findings. This study aims to determine the correlations between population density, clusters, and COVID-19 incidence across districts and regions in Malaysia. This countrywide ecological study was conducted between 22 January 2021 and 4 February 2021 involving 51,476 active COVID-19 cases during Malaysia's third wave of the pandemic, prior to the reimplementation of lockdowns. Population data from multiple sources was aggregated and spatial analytics were performed to visualize distributional choropleths of COVID-19 cases in relation to population density. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to synthesize dendrograms to demarcate potential clusters against population density. Region-wise correlations and simple linear regression models were deduced to observe the strength of the correlations and the propagation effects of COVID-19 infections relative to population density. Distributional heats in choropleths and cluster analysis showed that districts with a high number of inhabitants and a high population density had a greater number of cases in proportion to the population in that area. The Central region had the strongest correlation between COVID-19 cases and population density (r = 0.912; 95% CI 0.911, 0.913; p < 0.001). The propagation effect and the spread of disease was greater in urbanized districts or cities. Population density is an important factor for the spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

Spatial Dynamics and Multiscale Regression Modelling of Population Level Indicators for COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia.

As COVID-19 dispersion occurs at different levels of gradients across geographies, the application of spatiotemporal science via computational methods can provide valuable insights to direct available resources and targeted interventions for transmission control. This ecological-correlation study evaluates the spatial dispersion of COVID-19 and its temporal relationships with crucial demographic and socioeconomic determinants in Malaysia, utilizing secondary data sources from public domains. By aggregating 51,476 real-time active COVID-19 case-data between 22 January 2021 and 4 February 2021 to district-level administrative units, the incidence, global and local Moran indexes were calculated. Spatial autoregressive models (SAR) complemented with geographical weighted regression (GWR) analyses were executed to determine potential demographic and socioeconomic indicators for COVID-19 spread in Malaysia. Highest active case counts were based in the Central, Southern and parts of East Malaysia regions of Malaysia. Countrywide global Moran index was 0.431 (p = 0.001), indicated a positive spatial autocorrelation of high standards within districts. The local Moran index identified spatial clusters of the main high-high patterns in the Central and Southern regions, and the main low-low clusters in the East Coast and East Malaysia regions. The GWR model, the best fit model, affirmed that COVID-19 spread in Malaysia was likely to be caused by population density (ß coefficient weights = 0.269), followed by average household income per capita (ß coefficient weights = 0.254) and GINI coefficient (ß coefficient weights = 0.207). The current study concluded that the spread of COVID-19 was concentrated mostly in the Central and Southern regions of Malaysia. Population's average household income per capita, GINI coefficient and population density were important indicators likely to cause the spread amongst communities.